Sovereign wealth fund simulator

Project a National Heritage Fund 10 to 50 years out. The defaults match the framework's Chapter 9 design, modeled on Norway's Government Pension Fund Global. Adjust the sliders and watch the trajectory.

Fund parameters

Annual contribution $75B

Funded from federal mineral royalties, spectrum auctions, asset sales, and a defined share of corporate tax above baseline. Framework Chapter 9.

Expected real return 6.0%

Norway's GPFG averaged 4.1 percent real over 1998 to 2023. Long-run global equities average closer to 6 to 7 percent.

Distribution rate 3.0%

Norway's rule allows 3 percent annual withdrawal. Set to 0 percent to accumulate without distributions; higher rates pay out more each year but slow long-run growth.

Time horizon 30 years

AI windfall capture

Framework Chapter 16. A windfall tax on AI-attributable corporate income dedicated to the fund, ramping from year 5 to a peak in year 10.

Peak annual capture $75B

Illustrative. Framework Chapter 16 does not quote a specific number; this slider lets you model scenarios.

Fund balance at year 30 —

Annual dividend per adult — at horizon, distributed evenly

Cumulative distributions — total paid out over the period

Total contributions — vs returns

Fund balance over time

Your scenario versus Norway's Government Pension Fund Global on the same time horizon. Norway started effectively from zero in 1996.

Annual flows

Contributions and distributions year by year.

About the math

The model evolves fund balance year by year using: balance(t+1) = balance(t) × (1 + real_return) + contribution(t) − distribution(t), where distribution(t) is distribution_rate applied to the post-return balance. All figures are real (inflation-adjusted), so a $75 billion annual contribution today and a $75 billion contribution in 30 years are comparable.

Norway's Government Pension Fund Global is the closest real-world benchmark. The fund was established in 1990, received its first capital in 1996, and now manages roughly $1.7 trillion against a population of about 5.5 million. The framework's design draws from Norway's governance structure (independent board with long terms, broad diversified passive investment, explicit prohibition against direct domestic investment to avoid political conflicts) and from the Singaporean Temasek model.

Per-citizen dividend at maturity assumes equal distribution across approximately 258 million US adult citizens. The framework's Chapter 9 sketches three possible uses of the distributions: a citizen's dividend (modeled here), a Social Security supplement, or major infrastructure capital. Only one of those uses can apply to a given distribution dollar.

The AI windfall capture toggle models the framework's Chapter 16 proposal: a multi-tier corporate income tax on returns above a normal-returns threshold, ramping from year 5 (when AI-attributable returns become economically distinguishable) to peak in year 10. The peak value is illustrative; the framework does not quote a specific number.

See the methodology page for full source list including the Norges Bank Investment Management annual reports.