Six independent sets of criteria, each answering the same question a different way: is the US stock market rolling over into a correction (a 10 percent drop) or worse?
What it is: live prices for the four indexes the trend tracker scores (via their ETFs). Tabs switch between them. Quotes are real time or exchange-delayed per TradingView's free feeds.
Watch line: a spike in VIXY means fear is jumping (it tracks VIX futures); a slide in TLT means yields are rising. Actual VIX and 10-year levels are scored daily in the cards below.
What it says: the S&P 500 is 3.7% off its June 1 record and has slipped below its 50-day trend line, but is still comfortably above its 200-day trend (held since April 8). The damage is concentrated: the Nasdaq-100 is down 11.3% and officially in correction, while the equal-weight index just made a new high on July 28.
What it says: how far each index has fallen from its recent high. Only the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 has crossed the −10% correction line.
What it says: how many stocks are actually falling. About half of stocks remain above their 200-day average, well short of the ~73% typical when the index sits near highs, and short-term participation is weak. Soft and narrowing, but not the sub-40% washout that marks broad corrections.
What it says: investors are worried but not panicking. The VIX is hovering around 20, the line between calm and stress, and sentiment reads Fear, not Extreme Fear. Corrections usually confirm with VIX above 25 and sentiment pinned below 25.
What it says: the bond market is not confirming a downturn. Junk-bond spreads near 2.8% are historically tight (panic starts above ~4.5%), high-yield bond prices are steady, and the yield curve is normally sloped, not inverted. The asterisk: a newly hawkish Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% on July 29 with three governors voting to hike, which is what knocked stocks down that afternoon.
What it says: downturns that stick are the ones backed by a weakening economy. The Sahm rule recession indicator is at 0.13, far from its 0.50 trigger, and unemployment is steady at 4.2%. The open questions are AI capital-spending returns and an oil shock from the Iran escalation.
What it says: the 26-year view. Bank credit-card write-offs peaked at 4.6% in late 2024 and have eased to 3.8%, nothing like 2009's 10.5%. Mortgage delinquency sits near record lows at 1.9% but has now risen three straight quarters, and in 2007 that same series climbed for about a year before the market peaked, which is why it earns a watch. The real stress is in autos and student loans (tiles at right).
What it says: where the strain is concentrated. Car repossessions are back at global-financial-crisis volumes and subprime auto delinquency is at a record, but foreclosures are rising off an artificially low base and remain about a tenth of 2010 crisis intensity.
These are the tripwires. History says broad corrections announce themselves across several of these at once. Two have fired, both concentrated in tech.
| Trigger | Threshold | Now | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 in correction | −10% from peak | −11.3% | ▲ TRIGGERED |
| S&P 500 below 50-day average | Close < 50-DMA | 2.0% below | ▲ TRIGGERED |
| S&P 500 pullback | −5% (< 7,220) | −3.7% (7,316) | ✓ Not yet |
| S&P 500 correction | −10% (< 6,840) | −3.7% | ✓ No |
| S&P 500 below 200-day average | Close < 200-DMA (≈7,000) | Above since Apr 8 | ✓ No |
| Breadth washout | <40% above 200-DMA | 50.7% | ✓ No |
| Volatility breakout | VIX > 25 | ≈20 | ✓ No |
| Credit stress | HY spread > 3.5% | 2.81% | ✓ No |
| Average stock rolling over | Equal-weight −3% from high | −0.9% | ✓ No |
| Recession signal | Sahm rule ≥ 0.50 | 0.13 | ✓ No |
| Card write-offs breaking higher | >4.5% and rising | 3.84%, falling | ✓ No |
| Mortgage delinquency breakout | >2.5% | 1.89%, rising | ✓ No |